Europe has approximately six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining as Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enters its seventh week, according to the International Energy Agency. The closure of this critical shipping route has cut off three-quarters of Europe's aviation fuel imports from the Middle East.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that flight cancellations could begin soon if the supply disruption continues. The agency's monthly oil market report identified the Gulf region as the largest global source of jet fuel exports, with European refineries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil.
The world economy has been, very resilient over the last few years, facing shock after the shock. And this resilience is tested yet again, this time by a shock that is large. Twenty percent of oil and gas is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, depriving primarily Asia, but also Europe, and other parts of the world of a vital resource.
Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director — The Guardian
European countries are scrambling to secure alternative supplies from the United States and Nigeria. The IEA reported a rapid acceleration in US jet fuel exports, but warned these shipments would replace only slightly more than half of the lost Middle Eastern supplies even if entirely directed to Europe.
The agency's analysis suggests that if Europe cannot replace more than 50% of its Middle Eastern imports, physical shortages will emerge at select airports by June. Even if three-quarters of supplies are replaced, shortages could still occur by August during peak summer travel season.
The BBC frames this as a technical supply chain crisis requiring urgent policy response, emphasizing the IEA's authoritative warnings and focusing on practical impacts like flight cancellations. Their coverage reflects Britain's position as a major aviation hub vulnerable to fuel disruptions but with strong ties to alternative suppliers like the US.