Europe has approximately six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to block critical energy supplies from the Middle East, the International Energy Agency warned Thursday.
The strategic shipping route has been effectively closed by Iran for more than six weeks following US and Israeli military actions, cutting off roughly 75% of Europe's jet fuel imports and sending prices soaring across global markets.
In the past there was a group called 'Dire Straits'. It's a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy. And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world.
Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director — The Independent
Airlines across Europe are already feeling the impact. EasyJet reported spending an additional £25 million on jet fuel last month and expects losses of up to £560 million for the six months ending in March. Ryanair is considering cutting 10% of its flights, while Scandinavian airline SAS has cancelled over 1,000 flights this month.
The IEA's monthly oil market report reveals that European countries are scrambling to replace Gulf supplies with imports from the United States and Nigeria. However, even if all US jet fuel exports were redirected to Europe, they would only replace slightly more than half of the lost Middle Eastern supplies.
Frames the crisis as a direct consequence of Trump's blockade policy, emphasizing the economic disruption to British travelers and businesses. The outlet highlights domestic airline losses and potential chaos for UK holiday travel, positioning the story as a policy failure with immediate consumer impact.
Frames the story through a global economic lens, emphasizing how the crisis represents the 'largest energy crisis ever faced' with particular attention to impacts on Asian economies. The outlet positions India among the most affected nations while avoiding direct criticism of any particular actor.
The agency outlined stark scenarios for the coming months. If Europe cannot replace more than 50% of its Middle Eastern imports, physical shortages may emerge at select airports by June, resulting in flight cancellations. Even if three-quarters of supplies could be replaced, similar disruptions could still occur by August.
I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel.
Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director — The Independent
The crisis extends beyond Europe's borders. Asian countries including Japan, South Korea, India, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are expected to face the most severe impacts, as major refining nations like Korea, India, and China depend heavily on Middle Eastern crude oil imports for their own jet fuel production.
Airlines are already adjusting operations and pricing. A Ryanair spokesperson indicated fuel suppliers can guarantee supply only through mid-to-late May, with future availability dependent on whether the Iran conflict resolves soon. EasyJet reported bookings down two percentage points for summer months compared to last year.
The UK government stated it is working with fuel suppliers and airlines to ensure continued operations, noting that UK airlines currently report no supply disruptions. Airlines UK confirmed ongoing discussions about regulatory measures that might be needed if fuel shortages materialize.
What remains unclear is whether alternative supply chains can scale quickly enough to prevent widespread flight cancellations during the critical summer travel season, as European markets work to attract replacement cargoes from non-Middle Eastern sources.