Europe has approximately six weeks of jet fuel remaining before widespread flight cancellations begin, according to the International Energy Agency's executive director. The crisis stems from Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than six weeks, blocking a vital export route that normally supplies three-quarters of Europe's jet fuel imports.
I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel
Fatih Birol, Executive Director — International Energy Agency
The IEA's monthly oil market report identifies Gulf region exports as the largest source of jet fuel to global markets. Iran's blockade of the strait came in response to US and Israeli attacks, creating what the agency describes as throwing "a proverbial wrench into the inner workings of the aviation fuel markets."
European countries are scrambling to replace Middle Eastern supplies with imports from the United States and Nigeria. The IEA reports a rapid acceleration in US jet fuel exports in recent weeks, but warns these shipments would replace only slightly more than half of the lost Gulf supplies even if all were destined for Europe.
Airlines are already feeling the pressure. KLM announced it would cut 160 flights over the coming month due to high kerosene prices, though the Dutch carrier emphasized this represents less than one percent of its schedule and stems from financial rather than supply constraints.
Frames the crisis as a global economic disruption affecting European consumers through higher ticket prices and potential flight cancellations. Emphasizes the impact on the upcoming summer travel season and positions Europe as vulnerable to Middle Eastern supply disruptions, reflecting French concerns about energy security and economic sovereignty.
Takes a measured approach focusing on government preparedness and industry response, highlighting UK officials' assurances about current supply stability. Emphasizes technical analysis and contingency planning, reflecting Britain's post-Brexit focus on economic resilience and its role as a major aviation hub requiring supply security.
This concerns a limited number of flights within Europe that, due to rising kerosene costs, are currently no longer financially viable to operate. There is no kerosene shortage
KLM spokesperson
The IEA's analysis presents stark scenarios for European aviation. If Europe cannot replace more than 50 percent of its Middle Eastern imports, physical shortages may emerge at select airports by June, resulting in flight cancellations. Even if three-quarters of supplies could be replaced, similar disruptions could still occur by August.
The crisis coincides with the approaching summer travel season, when demand typically peaks. Refineries in major exporting countries including South Korea, India, and China face their own challenges, as they depend heavily on crude oil imports from the Middle East that are now disrupted.
UK government officials say they are working with fuel suppliers and airlines to ensure continued operations, noting that British carriers report no current supply disruptions. Airlines UK, the industry representative body, is discussing contingency measures with the government including potential regulatory relief.
The US-Iran conflict that triggered the crisis began with strikes at the end of February. A two-week ceasefire agreed last week has since collapsed, with indirect talks brokered by Pakistan continuing. Brent crude oil futures remain more than 30 percent higher than pre-war levels, adding financial pressure across the aviation sector.